The Good, the Bad and the Far-fetched
Michael Morreau

Abstract:
To judge the suitability of courses of action, the adequacy of
explanations and the worthiness of acts we must sometimes evaluate
hypothetical arguments. I shall consider the scheme A>B, B>C/A>C,
transitivity (> is a counterfactual conditional connective). It is
invalid in standard treatments. My main purpose is to explain why some
instances are compelling anyway. They are, I argue, because their
counterexamples are far-fetched. I shall also consider the prospects
for a non-standard treatment, in which transitivity is valid and
seeming counterexamples are to be explained away. They do not seem to
be very good.

Keyword(s): counterfactuals, inference